Morgan Stanley Forecasts Aggressive Fed Rate Cuts Starting March 2026

Morgan Stanley has positioned itself against the prevailing market caution with a bold prediction: seven consecutive Federal Reserve rate cuts beginning in March 2026, targeting a terminal rate of 2.5%-2.75%. Published June 25, this projection challenges the Fed's current tightening stance and could recalibrate expectations for risk assets.

The bank's scenario implies a rapid pivot to neutral policy, contrasting sharply with the post-2022 inflation-fighting regime. While cryptocurrencies aren't explicitly mentioned, such monetary easing historically correlates with capital rotation into speculative assets. Traders may price in this liquidity tailwind well before 2026.

Key uncertainties remain. The Fed hasn't endorsed this timeline, and geopolitical shocks could derail the disinflation trajectory. But the sheer specificity of Morgan Stanley's call—down to the month of the first cut—demands market attention.